The global container shipping market continues to experience turbulence in early 2026, entangled in multiple contradictions. Spot freight rates continue to decline, and the traditional pre-holiday shipment peak is absent. Concurrently, issues like equipment shortages at key ports and unstable sailing schedules are becoming increasingly prominent. This "difficult-to-ship" bottleneck is indirectly driving up sellers' overall logistics costs.
This pattern of "falling rates, scarce containers, and shipping difficulties" is not a short-term fluctuation but rather the continuation and amplification of the industry's structural supply-demand imbalance that began in 2025.
01 Looking Back at 2025: The "Structural Backdrop" of Imbalance
To understand the current market contradictions, we must examine the 2025 market fundamentals. Maritime trade last year showed significant regional divergence:
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Asian ports saw rising activity, benefiting from industrial transfer and demand substitution effects. Major Chinese ports like Ningbo-Zhoushan and Shanghai maintained steady growth, with annual container throughput exceeding 43 million TEU and 55 million TEU respectively.
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Major ports in Europe and America saw stagnant throughput growth, hampered by sluggish end-demand, policy uncertainty, and partial strikes.
In sharp contrast to this demand divergence was an explosion in supply. The global container fleet capacity exceeded 33 million TEU in 2025, with the vessel idle rate nearing 1% by year-end. Even accounting for capacity absorbed by the Red Sea diversions, the market still suffers from a surplus of approximately 1.5 million TEU (4.5%).
Route deployment adjusted accordingly
The weak Far East-North America route became the only major trade lane to see capacity reduction, with some large vessel capacity shifting to the Far East-Europe route. Emerging markets like the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America became new focal points for capacity deployment.
02 2026 Opening: Market Reality Under "Weak Demand" and "Strong Supply"
These structural contradictions manifested sharply at the beginning of 2026, exacerbated by seasonal factors.
Freight Rate Trend: Peak Season Effect Weakens, "Off-season" Arrives Early
Defying the traditional pattern of rising rates and tight space before the Chinese New Year, the 2026 market is characterized by an early "off-season." Using the Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) as a key indicator, the rate on January 30 was 852.8 points, a 12.6% drop from January 23, sending a clear signal of cooling pre-holiday demand.
Route Differentiation: Rates Fall Across Major Lanes with Varying Degrees
While all major route rates are weakening, the extent varies significantly:
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The Mediterranean route led the decline, with a cumulative drop of 12.3%.
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US East Coast, US West Coast, and European routes softened simultaneously, with declines around 5%.
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South America and Southeast Asia routes are also under considerable pressure, with declines nearing 10%.
Behind the "Rate Drop": Dual Pressure from Demand Pull-forward and Ample Capacity
The immediate reasons for the counter-seasonal rate weakness lie in simultaneous pressures from both supply and demand:
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Demand-side Pull-forward: In Q4 2025, European and American retailers, disturbed by geopolitical risks, generally engaged in advanced and excessive inventory replenishment. This substantially consumed the traditional pre-Chinese New Year restocking demand for January 2026, leading to a continued contraction in available market cargo and insufficient pre-holiday volume support.
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Supply-side Capacity Surplus: The 2025 global capacity growth rate reached 7.5%, and new vessels continued to be delivered in 2026. This new capacity effectively offset the capacity loss from Red Sea diversions. Coupled with the expected factory shutdowns during the Spring Festival, carriers actively lowered rates to secure limited cargo and protect load factors, further depressing spot rates.
03 Focus on the Contradiction: Why "Structural Container Shortages" Amid Overall Surplus?
In stark contrast to the overall falling rates is the structural shortage of containers, particularly 40HC high cubes, at key export hubs in China.
Manifestations: Shippers in some port areas need to pay premium fees for priority equipment pickup or are forced to source containers from neighboring cities, increasing both time and risk costs.
Root Causes: This shortage results from the combined effect of long-term circulation imbalance and short-term cargo concentration.
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The Red Sea diversions severely disrupted global empty container repositioning. The longer voyage times (adding 10-14 days) decreased empty container turnover efficiency, creating a global imbalance of "shortage in China, accumulation in Europe/America."
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Container type highly matches main export commodities. 40HC containers are primarily used for goods like home appliances and furniture, which see concentrated pre-holiday shipments. The surge in short-term demand further amplified the supply-demand gap for this specific container type.
Carrier Response: Collective "Blank Sailings" for Risk Mitigation, Resumption Pace Key for Market Outlook
Facing the cargo vacuum and pulled-forward demand, major global shipping alliances collectively implemented capacity management measures like blank sailings, port omissions, and service consolidations in February, entering a "recuperation" phase.
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Strategy Differentiation: Alliances adjusted tactics based on their network characteristics. For example, the Gemini cooperation focuses on optimizing Asia-Europe networks, while the Ocean Alliance significantly reduced capacity on the Trans-Pacific West Coast.
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Derived Risks: Large-scale blank sailings, superimposed on Red Sea diversions, can easily cause physical schedule slippage and vessel delays, leading to service discontinuities and increased risks of cargo rollover or port delays.
The next key market watchpoint is the "pace of sailing resumption." Carriers are currently cautious, mostly testing the waters on a small scale in January-February. A gradual release of capacity is expected in March-April.
Crucial Note:While the return of capacity may alleviate route pressure, it could also intensify downward pressure on freight rates post-March. Simultaneously, schedule reliability may remain a persistent risk in the coming months.
04 Strategic Response: Efficiency and Resilience Become the New Buzzwords
According to Alphaliner forecasts, the global container fleet capacity will exceed 34.7 million TEU in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. New capacity will continue to be concentrated on key east-west trunk routes, meaning overcapacity remains a medium-to-long-term theme. Against this backdrop, the industry is gradually moving away from the previous cycle of high rates and high profits, shifting towards a stage of refined competition focused on efficiency improvement, service optimization, and cost control. Zhongjing New Course Strategy Recommendations:
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Short-term: Sellers are advised to plan shipments cautiously, avoiding pre-holiday congestion and capitalizing on low-rate windows. For urgent 40HC or high-value cargo, it is crucial to secure equipment and space in advance, prioritizing sailings and carriers with stable schedules.
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Long-term: Negotiate more flexible long-term contracts and diversify partnership channels to enhance bargaining power and risk resistance. Foster closer collaboration with logistics service providers to jointly build a more resilient supply chain system.
The core of competition in the shipping market is shifting from the price game driven by the supply-demand mismatch of the past two years to a contest of end-to-end efficiency and resilience. For shippers and for us, building a flexible supply chain capable of quickly adapting to volatility and optimizing costs has become a more critical long-term capability than chasing short-term rate fluctuations.
As we welcome the Spring Festival, we extend our sincerest festive greetings to all our valued clients, partners, and industry colleagues: Wishing you great success in the Year of the Horse and smooth sailing in all your endeavors!
We thank you for your trust and partnership over the past year. May we continue to join hands and advance together in the new year, navigating market fluctuations steadily and creating a new journey of efficient and stable operations.
